Category Archives: new trends

Electric Cars SPARK RESILIENCY

photo credit: https://ecotricity.co.nz/cradle-to-grave-emissions/

Electric sparks may have been the cause of the ruinous fires in California this Fall. Incongruously, Electric Cars could be the beneficiary as the aftermath sparks new demand for alternative energy and gasoline-free vehicles. It was not the four-wheeel drive SUVs or oversized ICE (internal combustion engine) pickups  that came to the rescue. During the month-long disaster, Electric Vehicles served in heroic roles.

Consider the following item in Electrek from Carleen Cullen, executive director of Cool the Earth:

When her Marin County home’s power was shut off, she plugged… (a $25.00 inverter) into her Chevy Bolt’s cigarette lighter and ran an extension cord to power a radio, computer, cell phone, and lights. “It was an excellent solution,” she said. “And I did the same thing with my Tesla Model 3 to get lights running in my kitchen and TV room.”

Cullen (the founder of Drive Marin) explained that she needed to keep both cars turned on for the power to flow. The Model 3 was in the garage, and the Bolt was in the driveway. It meant going to the driveway to turn on the Bolt every hour or so after the car automatically shuts down. Meanwhile, her neighbors were in the dark.

EV TO THE RESCUE:

It is not the first time that Electric Vehicles have been first responders. In 2011, Nissan sent 66 electric LEAF vehicles to northeast Japan after the devastating earthquake and tsunami. In September, 2019 it again deployed the LEAF platoon following Typhoon Faxai. This rescue,  called V2H, provides vehicle- to- house power.

The Nissan V2H requires a small portable unit that connects between the house and the vehicle. This portable unit (currently) sells for about $6,000   so it’s not within the financial reach of many households and it is apparently only available in Japan.

However, with a fully charged 62 kilowatt hour battery and commercial size inverter, this solution is said to provide enough electricity to power an average (Japanese) house for four days. Or, it can charge 6,200 smartphones, or more than 100 elevator trips in a 43 story apartment building. General Motors recently suggested a similar home charging device, using batteries from recycled Bolt vehicles.

EV ‘RX’ ON THE SPOT

Note that in Marin, California Cullen was able to plug in, with a much smaller, and less expensive ($25.00) device, called an inverter. It converts power from a DC feed to AC. Cullen observes the one full day of power back-up used about six miles of vehicle range.

Cullen is helping spread the word and Californians will be updating their emergency kits with inverters. For those who can afford it, going full scale and powering their homes with a Tesla Wall (solar to home or car) will provide the fullest and greenest backup. The house and the car will recharge indefinitely, no matter how long the power stays off.

But, even with simplest and smallest inverters, and jumper cables,  California owners of Bolts, Teslas, and Nissans have more resources than drivers of ICE, gasoline cars.

GAS ENGINES (ICE) BURNING FOR FUEL

When the electricity shut-down in Northern California, many gas stations were caught unaware, and did not have backup generators to operate their tanks. So, it was common for people in Marin, Sonoma, and Napa Counties to drive thirty miles or farther in search of an open, and functioning gas station. 

As the time without power extended and more and more gas stations shut down, drivers faced a challenge. Drivers tried to locate gasoline, but lacked local information and maps. It led to extraordinary congestion and traffic snarls. The occasional vehicle would be way-laid on the side of the road when its fuel tank stalled out on “E”.


 PHONES AND CARS : AN RX RECHARGE

Keeping the tank full of gasoline was a necessity for more than driving trips. Charging smartphones was the critical issue and households used the USB ports and/or cigarette lighters in their vehicle to keep  smartphones powered. For many, this charging-in-the-car provided the only modicum of public safety to access the Internet and emergency services. 

Newer vehicles with well-maintained 12-volt batteries did not encounter problems charging the smartphone in the car, but older cars could have faced mechanical strains. Everyone found that charging a phone in the car took a lot longer than under household conditions because of the difference between household and vehicle amperage. Ironically, those “driving to charge the phone”  had to spend additional time on the road, and consume more gasoline.

STILL RUNNING ON EMPTY

Once the electrical power came back on, the gasoline crisis was not over. The demand for gasoline left popular stations without supplies, and it took a few days for them to restock. This was not the first time emergency conditions challenged ICE vehicles. Gas station havoc was noted following Hurricane Harvey in southeast Texas (2017. 

EV DRIVERS THINKING AHEAD

During the recent California fires, the situation was somewhat better for Electric Vehicle drivers, even if they did not own or borrow an inverter. First, recharging the phone in the electrical vehicle takes relatively little electrical power and does not draw down the battery much.  

More important though is something about the mindset of electric vehicles owners. 

Electric vehicle owners tend to be better prepared, or, put another way, “when people get an EV, they start to see the world differently.”  Many keep their vehicle at a 80% charge, since they must habitually plug-in at night to program for off-peak savings. On an everyday basis, they keep the range topped-up. And, owning an electric vehicle makes drivers more conscious of daily decisions surrounding distance, range, and preparing for the unexpected. 

Electric vehicle drivers already live “off the grid” when it comes to the sprawling network of gasoline stations and ICE repair shops. It’s easy to move further “off the grid” with an inverter, or more completely, with a Tesla Wall or a Nissan H2V.  As ICE drivers melt down in disasters, the next step is to join in the ‘electric charge’.

Echo Loop, MAAS, & Future TRAVEL

When Amazon introduced a novel pinkie ring that activates Alexa through voice commands, they probably didn’t consider its historical significance. The smart ring, called the Echo Loop, is the pinnacle of new technology.

It will take a while for the Echo Loop to become mainstream, but like an earlier wearable, namely the wrist watch, it is a game changer. It has the potential to manage transportation, reduce our reliance on smartphones, and unleash a torrent of connectivity.   It will spur Mobility as a Solution (MaaS) because it  is convenient and familiar.

TRAIN TIME

Many inventions, such as the wrist watch, first emerge as toys or novelties. Initially, pocket watches, “told  much about a gentleman, with regard to his social standing and his place in society.”  It was considered a faux-pas to check the time by pulling out a pocket-watch (on chain) in mixed company.  The pocket watch was as an object of discussion, a status symbol, and a luxury item.

The utilization of this device began to change as more countries developed large national rail networks. In the beginning of rail transport, every city, town, and railroad had their own timekeeping, leading to many train accidents. England adopted “railway time” in 1848  and in 1884 Greenwich Meridian Time became the universal standard. Still, it took a deadly U.S.  crash in 1891, the Kipton Train Disaster, to lead to precise engineered devices here.

THE FIRST WEARABLE 

During World War I supply truck drivers and aviators often received orders with strict time frames to help synchronize military actions.  These men needed timepieces that would let them keep both hands on the controls and check the time. Hence, the wristwatch was improvised and its popularity skyrocketed.  

I believe we have reached a similar technological transition today. In our vehicles, smartphones help optimize route-taking and navigation. However, drivers with hand- hold  phones are at 2 to 3.5 times greater risk of accidents than those with hands-free, voice-activated devices. 

ENTER ECHO  LOOP

This is where the next stage of technology, an Echo Loop  ring, will come into its element. CNET reported that the September, 2019 debut of the Echo ring  had people scratching heads and wondering what they would do with it…. 

“Yet to be discovered” is the potential to make travel planning “screen-free” and simultaneously provide more personalized and up-to-date information through integration with the transportation network. MaaS (mobility as a service) awaits a better technology to become mainstream. 

MaaS  IN A LOOP

The goal of MaaS is to organize seamless fare payment and to integrate timetables and modes. In today’s schema, MaaS combines transportation options from public and private sectors and provides a trip-taker with a customized travel ‘solution’ for each journey. For example, a commuter might take a trip by ferry boat, then get directions to walk to a bus stop, and complete the final leg to the office with a scooter or rideshare. All of these activities, including the booking and payment are handled through a single account. 

Currently mobile phones are the mechanism for creating a multi-modal MaaS trip, but this medium has significant drawbacks. The trip-taker must carry a smartphone and its voice activated commands are likely to be incomplete, and in some cases, unsafe. MaaS, via smartphone, requires a lot of swipes and RFID communications to stitch together a single trip.

ADVANCED JEWELRY

Advanced “jewelry” (the wearable), can bring calm to this endeavor. Imagine that the Loop would function like a wrist watch, executing in the background but behave more like an experienced, helpful companion who knows the route and can enliven it with conversational detail. 

Like the watch the Loop would clarify when to leave for the next ride, how much time to wait on the platform. The ability to perform, and speak customized travel planning will reduce the  reliance on screens. 

Unlike a wristwatch, a Loop could check for delays or changes, and give dynamic step by step directions. It might also reduce congestion by balancing  supply and demand, and help make more efficient use of the network.

And, through the voice commands, it could perform the duties of a personal assistant and reach out to the people or activity at the end of the journey. 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD

Time-pieces, as you will recall, helped lay the groundwork for railroads. If this playbook still holds, then the smart ring, today’s novelty and luxury item, may become tomorrow’s facilitator for a better MaaS, and a transformed means to travel.  

 

 

The ProvisionAL PHONE NEEDS TO SLOW US DOWN

"Why am I in your Hand?"  A screensaver photo showing the time, and this message.
Photo adapted by Jordan McQueen on Unsplash. Displayed by Medium, 11/16/17

The social speed of information is awesome…but it is also dangerous for beginners.

For most of history, messages traveled at about the same speed as a person or animal could walk. The pony express, courier pigeon, and smoke signal incrementally hastened delivery but it is the telegraph that truly disrupted the speed of travel.

Morses’ telegraph machine, invented in 1837, was the first time that messages moved faster than the sender. Communications sent via telegraph, and later via phone, sped from person to person. Today, the internet brings equal or faster speeds with an entirely new dimension. Accelerated messaging travels from a single sender to large groups or collectives; in other words, less person-to-person and more person-to-mass media.

The communications impact is momentous. In this article we consider the virtues of “speed control,”  a continuation of our discussion on phones and provisional learners.

A Cue from Driver’s Education:

First, we take a cue from driver’s education. We need to equip a beginner’s phone with software that encourages new users, usually tweens, to bring focus and attention. Useful software should discourage them from jerky, impulsive communications. It should function like a “parental voice” at the back of a tweens head, helping them to find balance between novelty and risk.

This is done for us when we drive on the road. Legal speed limits keep us in check and make the driving experience predictable. The posted speed sign anticipates the geometry of the road to prevent accidents. There is no analogous criterion for engaging with electronic media like Instagram, Facebook, and Tumblr.

Software that slows down tweens has merit. Imagine if there was a ten second delay from the time that a tween posts something to the time that it gets sent out on social media. A pop up might say: “Are you sure that you need to post this? Would you post this if your parents or teachers could read it?  Will you want this post discovered five years from now?”

A ten second delay is not a long time, but would help overcome the impulsiveness of young people.

Cutting back the Multi-task:

A second way to slow down the phone is to design hardware that reduces the ability to multi-task. This is helpful, for while brains are fast, the cognitive ability to stay focused and alert is not. Teens and preteens would be well served if their phones could run only one app at a time. As an example, using GPS for navigation would then disable phone calls and texting. A slower phone is a safer one.

When we drive, there are external messages that prompt us about speed. Standardized road signs and electronic message boards post legal speed limits, but the speed limit changes with bad weather or road work. Electronic media need to have their own message board: perhaps not a weekly summary of our time online, but a countdown of when we started, and the elapsed time.

Niklas Goke, the writer, asks why phones can’t be designed like toothbrushes. While essential, phones should be simple and not trigger us to continually be picked up. He proposes a  number of useful tips that can be applied to provisional phones. One of them is the common-sense screensaver that displays the current time and the message “Why am I in your hand? (see image above). at School & Home:

Slowing it Down at School and Home:

A third way to slow down the phone, of course, is external: parents and educators can set time of day restrictions. Around the world, a number of school systems do this: among them, France, Israel, and Australia (NSW). Parents need to set their own standard, using apps that compile their time online, or require that that teens’ phones be placed face down on the kitchen table at bedtime.

We live in a time when speed, phones, and the ability to act are co-mingled.  Speed will increasingly be the key to manage the Internet of things and future autonomous vehicles but in person- to-person relations it can be a detriment.

We need distance from our phones to reflect on the message content, be kind to others, and make better decisions. So, slowing down the phone…a vital facet of the provisional phone…. is about matching the pace of technology to a young person’s moral and emotional development.  A provisional phone with speed settings is a useful stop.

Parking Lost- Customers Gained

It’s an anomaly but lost parking can find new customers.

It’s painful to tell a small business owner that the City will remove curb parking. It feels like an amputation.

But, a convergence of  factors are unhinging old parking paradigms. Novel travel habits and online shopping require, even demand, open, free-flowing curb space. The old-style metered parking spots are an impediment to modern business.

Here are some of  the factors:

1.It is difficult to drive to shop so we travel differently: There has been an increase in urban congestion-  e.g., One source says NYC experienced a 56% increase in congestion since 2006. It also takes an additional 15 minutes to search there for on-street parking.  Most cities have raised parking rates, making curb-side parking more expensive and also inconvenient for those without a parking app. These factors dial down the appeal of driving and shift some trips towards rideshare.

But, as Uber and Lyft become a more common mode for shopping trips  so grows the need for safe curbside boarding. The merchant who has two-hour parking out-front does not benefit.

2. Storefronts are meeting new needs:  Store-fronts go empty but there has been growth in new business categories. Dog care centers, gyms, child care centers and after-school facilities are new contenders. However, all of these, with the exception of the gym, require pick up and drop off. They accelerate the need for short-term, in-and-out parking spaces.

A conventional one or two hour parking space thwarts the comings and goings of the main customers.

3. There is  a change in buying habits. The Millennial generation outnumbers Baby Boomers, and younger people appear to have more utilitarian  expectations towards local travel. They do not find shopping to be an outing that co-mingles the opportunity to drive and spend. Younger people are more likely to buy their goods online, and say that they enjoy the freedom of home delivery.

The need to find a near-store parking space is less vital when bulky items, say the twenty pound bag of cat litter, is dropped off by a delivery service. While mega-shopping stores like Costco are likely to survive,  even they have found the need to offer same day grocery delivery. On weekdays, Costco aisles are filled with Instacart pickers, a personal home shopping service.

To be a commercial success, Instacart service, like the dog care or child-care center,  requires quick curb dropoffs.


4. Eating Habits are Changing Too: People eat three times a day yet sales at grocery stores, and even some restaurants, are on the decline. However, businesses like DoorDash and UberEats are growing rapidly. People prefer to eat at home or work, but do not cook there.

So, like the dog-care and child-care centers, these new food businesses depend on having end-to-end  curb space; both when they pick up the food and then, when it is dropped off. Restaurant patrons who prefer to drop-in become frustrated by the traffic tie-ups they encounter.

ROAD DIETING:

Businesses are in flux, and so are attitudes towards local transportation. There has been a rethink on two counts: how we transverse first-mile/last-mile trips and how we ration the allocation of public streets. Until recently, the built road system depended on cars for the first/last mile trips, and favored them at the expense of all other travel modes.

Recognizing that 42% of daily trips are 3 miles or less, there is a movement to claw back the amount of  road space dedicated to the car. Road diets narrow or reduce the lanes allocated to cars and trucks, and increase the surface area for  pedestrian, buses, and bicycles.

We noted that younger generations bring new attitudes towards mobility. They expect local trips to be healthier, favoring bikes and walking. When they travel in vehicles, there is a preference for trains, buses, and rideshare; these modes provide an efficiency bonus since riders multi-task en route.

Meanwhile, there is even more disruption on the horizon. Micro-mobility has accelerated the call for “road diets” since neither sidewalks or streets currently provide safe operations.

Micro-mobility  could emerge as  the game-changer for local business. If  the safety issues are satisfied through the road diet,  this mode addresses the requirements for first/last mile trips and make it far easier to navigate local neighborhoods. Micro-mobility could rejuvenate foot traffic for local store-fronts and restaurants. Crucially, it liberates users from the need for curb-space.

IN SUM:

The economy is changing…and so will be the shape of roads we travel. For small local businesses, the evolution might seem too fast. For those that work on travel planning, and want to encourage new bike lanes or rapid bus service, the pace may seem snaillike. But,  as Boomers drive less, and younger generations favor multiple modes and micro-mobility, different types of shopping and businesses will take root.

In the near future,  the metered, urban parking space is likely to go the way of drive-in movie theatre and full-service gas station. They once facilitated vehicle travel, but became functionally obsolete.

Rideshare Windfall

There’s a new reason to give five stars to Rideshare…at least in Massachusetts.

Local governments will receive a transportation windfall in Massachusetts. Nearly $6.5 million will be distributed in 2019, thanks to a bill that levied a 20 cent tax on each ride, of which ten cents returns to the municipality where the trip originated. The City of Boston will receive close to $3.5M from the tax, and Cambridge, Ma., next in ridership, will net about $678,000.

New revenues may require new thinking: will the public be well served if local governments plow the windfall from the TNC’s (Transportation Network Company) back into local Rideshare?  

Re: Re-thinking?

Windfalls speak loudly so pundits and policy makers might revisit how Rideshare serves their communities. Last year, local officials were surprised to learn  that Uber and Lyft served underprivileged neighborhoods with better service than taxi companies.

The TNCs are often decried to be a source of transportation woes from increased congestion to decreased transit ridership. But, for another point of view, see this article. It’s time to ask what other “common goods” might be furthered by expanding Rideshare.

Historically, proceeds from transportation taxes, like vehicle registration fees and parking fines, plow back into a wide array of municipal priorities. But, what if the 2019 Rideshare revenue is plowed back into Rideshare? Can the TNC windfall be allocated to improve Rideshare, and, coincidentally, elevate other transportation goals?

Rethinking: Drivers and Paratransit Vans

A problem that vexes public transportation officials is the high cost of providing paratransit service. An innovative paratransit trial between the TNCs and the Boston MBTA is said to have dropped the administrative cost per trip from around $45.00 to ~$21.00*, but it has also increased the demand from riders for more trips. The riders, who rely on this service for mobility, have a need to keep mobile, and prefer the new offering to the bulky paratransit vans and cars that require several days notice to schedule.

Uber and Lyft currently have some  Wheelchair Accessible Vehicles (WAV) but the fleet size cannot meet the demand.  As I write this blog, mid-day, Thursday, from Cambridge, Ma. it would take approximately 2 minutes and $12.00 for an Uber X vehicle to pick me up for a trip to the airport, but about 10 minutes (and same price) for a WAV.  This is an exception, as trips from Newton and the outer suburbs typically require a wait of 20 minutes or longer.

The obstacles to growing the system have been twofold: an insufficient number of WAV equipped vehicles and a lack of trained drivers. The business model has been evolving though, and in Washington, D.C. Uber  has subcontracted with MV Transportation , a privately owned transport carrier, for both drivers and vehicles. Drivers also receive a bonus for taking these trips.

Thinking back to the windfall: an additional bonus would be set-aside by policy makers,  either to reward the TNC driver, or assist their financial outlay to equip SUVs and vans to accomodate wheelchairs, walkers, and electric scooters.

Meanwhile, taxi providers, who currently receive 5 cents from the 20 cent per/trip tax in Massachusetts, might also restore their fleets and initiate new WAV service, if so-inclined.

Both Taxis and Rideshare vehicles with open seating, may do double purpose. A recent article cited how shared trips can ferry bikers and recreational hikers to out-of-range sites.

Rethinking: Air Quality

Rideshare does not have to be in competition with other transportation modes. In fact, it could significantly and positively impact goals to reduce carbon emissions and air pollution.

TNC revenues (aka, the windfall) could be put towards a vehicle rebate or credit for drivers who drive fully electric vehicles. The credit would be tiered to the number of miles or time that the Rideshare vehicle is in commercial use.

The idea is not novel:  This year London legislators begin a per mile surcharge on Rideshare trips to help drivers over multiple years, switch from diesel to cleaner vehicles.  In the U.S. Lyft announced initiatives to favor greener vehicles, such as adding more to their rental-fleet, and including hybrids in the rider’s choice of vehicle options.

Helping Uber and Lyft drivers acquire electric vehicles should be a win/win for municipalities and drivers. Governments are more likely to achieve their air quality goals and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Drivers favor them because of lower operating costs and fewer repairs.

Meanwhile, another externality, the impugned congestion from Rideshare vehicles, can be tackled. Public service ads need to promote shared Rideshare trips as the social, responsible and efficient choice when transit is not a feasible option.

Rethinking: Senior Training

On a much smaller scale, it happens that I volunteer and teach seniors how to access Rideshare using smartphones. My interest as a volunteer grew out of writing a book called “Aging in Suburbia,” which you can find on Amazon.  I like to tell the students that I developed this Rideshare class in lieu of going on a book tour.

As people choose to age in place, they need transportation alternatives, as their driving skills decline and the costs of keeping a car weigh in.  For older people, Uber and Lyft provide a means to travel safely on bad-weather days or after-dark. They can also be the first and last mile link to public transportation.

We currently teach the Rideshare class with a small army of volunteers and a stack of handouts. A small investment in expanding these classes, perhaps using video and on-line training, would greatly expand the offering. A small investment in education would greatly increase the number of Boomers and Seniors we can reach and keep mobile.

Rethinking: Mind the Curb

Finally, as we imagine what municipalities could fund we should not overlook the curb. To promote Rideshare, curb space needs to be inventoried, signed, and upgraded. These improvements will make Rideshare easier for passengers, and safer for drivers.

Curb-space is the tempest between public and private space. As often noted, the availability of parking meters, on-street parking, and cheap airport parking encourages people to own and drive their own vehicles.

Regulators face a personal challenge here. It is not in their financial interest to reduce on-street parking (e.g., in FY16 Boston collected ~$15.5 in meter fees and ~$57.8 million in parking fines).  But, to accommodate better traffic flow and reduce congestion, as well as make Rideshare safer, curb space needs to be reimagined. So, parking is at the crux of the issue. The good news is that improving Rideshare increases the revenue spun off from the per/trip fee.

Thinking Forward:

Summing up, policy makers and local government seem likely to put new transportation funds to old purposes. Their staffs have long lists of transportation projects that are unfilled and underfunded. So, it takes only a moment to redirect new revenue to existing endeavors.

But, it does not have to be a zero-sum game.

Transportation budgets almost always have allocations for programs that improve air quality, reduce carbon emissions, and increase access for seniors and the handicapped. These are imperatives.

Rideshare supports these initiatives, just in new ways.

The need is to acknowledge that Rideshare is a complement to existing transportation goals, grow it further, and discover better ways to link the resources.

*Pilot Financial Overview – Public Presentation to MAPC by MBTA . Based on 1,168 tides. October, 2018.

Smartphone Travel: Virtual and Veritable

I don’t travel far but my smartphone sends me far afield.”

A recent transportation paper suggests that younger people are wired at birth. The survey study by Boumjahed and Mahmassani, observes that ‘digital natives’ are more likely to engage in virtual activities as a substitute for trips done by private car.  This effect is more pronounced among those who say that they were technologically-engaged as kids.

It is a timely paper that reinforces the popular view that store-fronts and mall traffic are in decline as young people pivot to online activities. “The bottom line is that Americans are shifting from a society that prioritizes products to a society that prioritizes experiences”.  The net result is that spending behaviors, saving strategies, and most importantly, travel trips, are in flux.

Modifying Trends…

To some extent, this evolution of travel behavior was predicted. The earliest papers on transport/telecomm interactions doubted that electronic communication would displace trips Instead, Salomon, Mohktahrian, and others predicted that both the volume of communications and the volume of travel would be complementary and expand. Simply stated, more communications would make for more transport, and more transport would lead to more communications.

However, they also predicted a third interaction: while the entire system grows, technology modifies the type of travel taking. The nature of that travel is just beginning to take shape and form.

We recommend a recent paper in computational  science that used Instagram postings to illustrate the blending of tourist travel, local travel, and internet browsing. And, we cite two survey studies that suggest a new dyamic between long-distance trip taking and virtual communications.

The survey studies  are not academic, but both have fairly robust samples. Both are inspired by the travel industry. They are a worthwhile read because they hint that the demand for travel will continue to grow- but in a different way than previously imagined- Instagram and social media may take on new weight.  Keep in mind the op-cit remark that that, “… Americans are shifting from a society that prioritizes products to a society that prioritizes experience.”

Social Media Before and After Trip Taking

The first study, conducted by the AARP and aptly called “Travel Research: 2018 Travel Trends”  is based on interviews with 714 Baby Boomers, 403 GenXers, and 374 Millenials.

The study found that when compared with Boomers, the Millennials and GenX, were more likely to travel internationally. Why?  The stated reasons for travel were health, trying something new, and adventure. These younger groups were also more likely to say they would combine business travel and side trips.

The next part of the AARP study  is interesting: there is a tipoff that social media fuels the demand for international travel.  Eighty four percent of the Millennials and 67% of Gen X said they wanted to post their vacation pictures. GenX and Millennials were far more likely than Boomers to say that posting vacation pictures would be artistic, make them feel less alone, and provide boast and bragging rights.

Circling back to the original, more solid research by BouMjahed and Mahmassani, are younger people shunning routine and boring everyday travel because they can now travel further afield, and are social media and virtual networks seeding those adventures?

More Social Media and Trip Taking

The second long-distance travel study (op cit) was conducted in 2017 by the Center for Generational Kinetics and Expedia. It is also cohort based, with a total sample of 1,254.  Not surprisingly, given the study sponsors, social media was found to underpin trip making. Twenty seven percent of Millennials said they canvassed opinions on social media before booking a trip. More noteworthy is that thirty-six percent of Gen Z said they selected a destination ‘specifically because of postings they saw.’ Both groups said they were willing to sell furniture, take extra jobs, or do whatever it took to raise funds for their travel adventures.

It will take some time before we know whether these are just young people responding to a survey or actual sign- posts of change. However, as  Boumhahed and Mahmassani suggest digital natives may be wired differently when it comes to travel.

And More to Come…

Summing up, the internet and smartphone reduce the need for local, boring, and increasingly slow and congested everyday travel. Exercise, errands, and socializing are more  easily done from home or from a work place. So, it seems that store fronts will continue to close, and home deliveries will increase…. unless the autonomous vehicle changes preferences.

Meanwhile, more reliance on smartphones and social media could create their own demand for an entirely new category of trip taking. As predicted in the early studies of transportation/communication interaction there are modifications. One of them is the supersized, super-expansive, epic trip adventure generated by social media and posted on social media.



Will Waze Carpool App Slow Down Uber?


Waze App for Carpools
Waze Carpool App   https://www.waze.com/carpool

Smartphones have accelerated travel information…notifications of real-time traffic, on-demand transit, and, of course, rideshare. But, can a smartphone app crack carpooling?  Waze, a Google subsidiary, developed a carpool app that will look familar to rideshare users, with features like driver name, cost, and arrival time.  Waze is now taking that app nationwide and providing incentives for new signups.

Carpooling has been the transportation “nut” that smartphones have not pried open.  In Los Angeles and most other US cities, only about eight or nine percent of commuters choose to carpool despite numerous campaigns.  I personally worked on TDM (transportation demand management) in Los Angeles and observed carpools to be the “high hanging fruit.”  (editorial  note:  nuts can be fruits)

CARPOOLS: THE HIGH HANGING FRUIT

Why?    First, the ‘real’ number of carpools is inflated and considerably less than the census numbers state. Today’s carpool count includes drivers who ride with a family member, or drop their children off at school. The drivers can legitimately say that they have a passenger, get counted in the surveys, and gain access to faster carpool lanes. But, they are not picking up a casual acquaintance or stranger.  

Carpooling can be inconvenient for a driver who might have to detour during peak-traffic to pick up or drop off passengers. It has been awkward for the driver and passenger to set a price and exchange fees.

HOW WAZE COULD HELP:

In principle, a Waze app could shift the balance.


The missing component for carpooling is the ability to establish trust between strangers.  Hitchhiking fails because strangers meet up with no prior information. An app can close the gap by providing a strongly enforced rating mechanism, like the one pushed to riders and driver after each trip on Uber or Lyft.

Prior to smartphones, there was no systematic, real-time way for riders and drivers to establish trust.  Taxi drivers were considered trustworthy because they were screened through livery boards and medallions. Limo drivers and mini-cabs in the U.K. were subject to similar checks. It is important to note that taxis, limos, and mini-cab drivers all have commercial insurance. Uber and Lyft drivers do too once they secure a passenger trip.

To establish similar levels of trust, a robust carpool app may need to certify that the driver’s DMV driving record and insurance information check-out. Then, passengers will know that they will be riding with a responsible driver in a safe vehicle.

TIME IS OF MATTER AND MORE:

Both time and distance matter for would-be carpools. Here, Waze travel information could play a crucial role. Although detouring to pick up a rider a few blocks away might seem simple there could be significant delays for the driver depending on the roads, time of day, and traffic. The algorithms used by Uber and Lyft account for these issues when they match a driver and passenger. Carpooling apps can use the same tools to minimize the inconvenience for the driver, and keep the passenger informed as the ride approaches.

Second, smartphones plus credit cards solve the monetary transaction that needs to take place between driver and passenger. The passenger does not have to “split the gas” or “share the tolls.” No cash needs to be exchanged. Having a pre-established billing system reduces the uncertainty between strangers and builds trust (#1).

Something that is exogenous,  future increase in gas prices, may serve as an incentive to carpool.  However, transportation researchers have found,  that the travel time saved by using HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lanes is also an incentive, and as more users carpool, these designated lanes became less productive.

PLUSES OR MINUSES?

That said, will the Waze app become as popular as Uber or Lyft, or will there be drawbacks?

  • Unless drivers arrange the carpool before they get in their vehicle, there will be even more reliance by  casual drivers using smartphones in traffic. Mobile phones are an increasing source of driver distraction, and there is mixed evidence, pro and con, of whether hands-free devices are safer.  Potentially, vehicle accidents could increase, but the app can help identify the safest drivers. 
  •  In a personal vehicle, the norms are fuzzy:  Some drivers may have difficulty speaking up about the house-rules and some passengers will flaunt them anyway. A carpool rating system may restore the balance, but because the rating system will be slower (a given driver makes only two or three trips a day) the driver might exit the entire system before there is an adequate feedback loop.  
  • Finally, this may be the most important reason why the carpool app will need time to grow:  “Drivers are turned inward”. The driver is transporting strangers in their personal car. For many, this vehicle is their largest purchase and most prized possession. Millions of dollars have been spent on advertising to remind car owners that “vehicles=freedom + identity + well-being.” 

So, until further notice, the decision to carpool could be overruled by the opportunity to make unannounced stops, do a drive-through for food, and have a sanctuary between the home and office.  It will just depend!

Curious why you see fewer posts here at GrayHomesGreenCars? Follow the  smartphone- centric blog at dearsmartphone.com and join in the discussion!

Rideshare As Niche Transit? (Nice!)

Rideshare and Transit Working Well
Rideshare and Transit as Partners

Can transit be a contender in the race for ‘first-mile last-mile’ and niche travel?  Transit doesn’t have a short, sexy name, like Lime or Bird, but transit does have room to grow if you pair it with rideshare. 

This past week I attended a short workshop held by the Massachusetts  Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) called a ‘Ride-Hailing Parternships Forum. The program showcased local  institutions that have partnered with Uber and Lyft .  It was an interesting weave of legacy  transportation and  the upstarts.  Here are observations, and in italics  my comments (JG).  While I have tried to be journalistically accurate, it is still a good idea to check with the workshop coordinator  before quoting.

Niche 1: Rideshare Goes Where Transit Does…But Faster

The Boston region has an older but extensive commuter-rail and bus network so in principle you don’t have to own a vehicle, even if you live in the outer suburbs. However, getting from one locale to another can be exceedingly slow if the travel trip requires connections or transfers. Northshore Community College had difficulty getting students to campus within a reasonable travel time as the classrooms, and campus services were spread over different locales (think of a triangle: public transit often had students traveling the right angle).

The Community College found a solution: they provide enrolled students with access to a rideshare business account. It has a cap of $10.00 per trip and travel is limited to commutes.  Northshore no longer operates a shuttle bus at an annual cost of nearly $100,000, and students seem to reach their classes with less travel time. This means that the campus can recruit from a larger area, retain students who have a family or work a second job, and not make car ownership seem like a prerequisite for getting an education.

JG: From a birds-eye view, rideshare is expanding the transit network in the greater Boston area. Over time, it may help to fine-tune it, and even reduce the number of low-performing bus routes (see Niche #4 below too). A larger question for land-user planners is how to locate future facilities, like a community college, closer to the main lines.

Niche 2: Rideshare Lowers the Cost of Paratransit and Makes Riders Happy

The Ride, which is the paratransit operation of the MBTA, had a purported annual budget in 2016 of  ~ $100 million.  Around 2016  they partnered with Uber and Lyft, and encouraged ambulatory passengers to take rideshare instead of the usual paratransit trip. Each rideshare trip trip would be subsidized, but could not exceed a cap.  What began as a pilot proved to be a win-win for passengers: they said they preferred arriving in Uber or Lyft instead of big, lumbering vans or Ride branded vehicles; they did not have to pre-book for travel often three or four days in advance; and they seemed to enjoy participating in high-tech mobility.

The  travel outcomes are surprising and important.  According to a RIDE spokesman: the pilot reduced the RIDE’s cost the per cost trip from $41.00  to just $17.00. That is a 59 percent decrease. However, it also fueled the number of trips “ordered” by eligible customers by nearly 46 percent.

There have been a few other bumps on the service road. Many  passengers resist taking pooled trips. And, a few Uber and Lyft drivers have been resistant to accommodating  service dogs. The stickiest and most challenging issue seems to be providing a sufficient supply of WAV  (wheel chair accessible vehicles).

JG: Perhaps one of the most vital aspects, still to be measured, is whether both the mental and physical health of RIDE passengers is improved. Does new- found mobility improve the quality of life and are their benefits from the opportunity to be more socially, culturally, and physically active?

Niche 3: Rideshare is the New Link to Medical Care:

It is often cited that 30 percent of patients miss their medical appointments because they cannot get to the doctor . Whether that percentage is too large is debatable (patients might want to cancel for other reasons), but the no-show numbers are staggering.

The Needham Community Council, a private non-profit social service agency tackled the issue several years ago when their Executive Director saw a decline in the number of volunteer drivers. She was the first to identify Rideshare as a back-stop for patients who had difficulty reaching medical services, and went on to negotiate business contracts with both Uber and Lyft (she currently uses only Lyft).  Since her older office staff lacked the facility to dispatch rides with smartphones, the council reverted to summoning rideshare trips via voice calls like the Go Go Grandparent  service.

The Needham service currently averages about thirty-five trips a month at an average cost of $8.00 per ride.  Although each trip is completely subsidized, the council discovered a soft touch so that about 25% of the riders to contribute to the cost of travel. Meanwhile, local hospitals and charities also make small financial contributions.

JG: The Needham program is noteworthy, not only because it was a first in health-care travel, but because it continues to be sustainable. Although many larger corporate players are moving into this space this is an example of how a small grassroots program can do the job well, and make up for the lack of volunteer drivers.

Niche 4: Rideshare is the Missing Link in the Transit Schedule

Bus service is not 24/7 but the needs of riders can be,  particularly on weekends, holidays, and after 6 pm.  With limited service evening riders are stranded along with those working night shifts and low paying service jobs.  In fact, to work a low paying job at night or weekends, you might need have to own a car. The problem is particularly acute in low-density, sprawling suburbs, where workers are more likely to be able to afford to live.

The Greater Attleboro-Taunton Regional Transit Authority (GATRA) operates fixed bus route service from  6 am to 6:30 pm weekdays, and Saturdays, 9 am to 5 pm. To meet the needs of their ‘under resourced’ riders,  community leaders  banded together to provide an alternative. They tapped into an existing transit grant of $30,000 and used the local YMCA as a lead. Now, riders who are opted-in by any of the community leaders (there are currently ten of them) get access to rideshare  outside of the narrow transit service window.

Other regional transit agencies are beginning to investigate the feasibility of this niche service, particularly for routes where headways are long and ridership is sparse (often a confounding problem).

JG: In an interesting twist of data analysis, origin/destination/ and time of day data from Uber and Lyft  might reveal where future bus service is warranted. It has generally been observed in other cities that the highest level of rideshare growth has been in the evenings and on weekends. 

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In our earlier blog, we observed that regulators are quick to jump on the bandwagon to tax the rideshare companies and blame them for increased traffic congestion and reduced transit ridership. In fact, an earlier publication by MAPC, whether correctly interpreted or not, led to the headline that Uber and Lyft were pulling people off public transit and putting them in traffic .

The MAPC workshop, yet organized by regulators, suggests there might be a softening and second look at entirely new and niche travel behaviors.  

Surveys are Simple…Rideshare is Not

Imrix and Traffic
A Traffic Question

Traffic congestion is caused by many factors: population and employment growth, construction activity, deliveries, on-street parking, aggressive lane-shifting drivers, and more.

But, policy makers insist that Uber and Lyft are the primary culprits. This belief has led officials in New York City and elsewhere to propose caps on the number of rideshare vehicles,  in the name of taming congestion. 

READING THE POLLS:

Sometimes policy makers take the polls too seriously or over-interpret the results. An oft-cited poll of rideshare users in Boston, Ma. cites that 42 percent of rideshare users would otherwise use public transit. A 2017 UC Davis study of Lyft and Uber riders in seven major cities reports that fifteen percent said they would ride transit more if ride-hailing was no longer available. A separate  poll in Boston observes that 30 percent of riders have switched from transit to rideshare.  

If you unpack the surveys, there are red flags:

  1. When riders take a poll (i.e. survey) they seek a response which is socially correct and appears reasonable. It is less socially acceptable to say you would use your own vehicle and drive…it is more socially acceptable to say you would have taken the bus or train.                                                                                                                                                   
  2. Some polls fail to report the number of riders who do not currently own a car, or who have decided to postpone the purchase of one.                                                                                                                       
  3.  In most major cities, public transit operates at capacity during peak commute hours. Young people have accelerated the demand for transit because they have a lower rate of car-ownership and live close in. However, transit capacity has not expanded to meet the ridership growth.                                                                                                               
  4. Under real conditions, riders may not take the bus or train on consecutive days of the work week. The decision to ride transit on a particular day depends on multiple factors: weather, if there are kids to pick up or drop off, packages or heavy bags to tote, and the walking distance to and from the bus stop.

INFERENCES:

It is both a statistical error and a social one to infer that all of the people who said they would have used mass transit would have completed their trip that way.

There is recent data from rideshare studies that inform the issue. One of the largest increases in rideshare takes place during late evenings and weekends… times when transit service is less frequent and there are longer waits. On weekends and evenings, car owners find rideshare to be convenient for other reasons too. They can save on the cost of parking, and not worry about DUI’s.

SURVEYS ARE SIMPLE:

The thing to keep in mind is that surveys are simple…but trips are not. If someone decides to drive, instead of taking Uber or Lyft, they might “bundle” the reason for taking that trip with other interim stops. These are called “chained trips” and drivers typically complete multiple stops (or errands) on a single tour. A survey question about a single trip does not get at the nuances of chained travel, and when you ask people specifically about a single transport mode they don’t tell you why they are traveling.

The demand for trip taking is elastic, so adding capacity will encourage brand new activity patterns and travel. The convenience, reliability and low cost of rideshare has surely increased trip taking.  This observation is highlighted  in the op cit. Clewlow/Misha/UC Davis poll: 22 % say they would take fewer trips without rideshare.

NEW PLATFORM= NEW DEMAND:

However, turned around, new travel trips would also have occurred on a different platform… say public transit…if transit had become more convenient, frequent, and reliable. Unfortunately, it has not kept pace with the return of Millennials to cities and most urban systems are hobbled by network and capacity issues. The gain in more personal travel modes, like bicycles and scooters is probably indicative of underlying demand. However, these modes are not safe or practical for many potential users.  Uber and Lyft have taken up the slack.

It’s easy to point to survey results that favor transit and to scapegoat rideshare for slowing down traffic. It’s also easy for lawmakers to then proceed from survey result “A” to outcome “B” and advocacy “C”: namely, a tax or freeze on rideshare in the spirit of trying to rein it in. It is a remnant from the heady days of selling taxi medallions.

It’s harder for these survey pundits to admit that cracks in the existing transit system enabled the demand for more travel trips and hence rideshare… to spring up.

When for Autonomous Vehicles… Follow the Horse

The Rapid Adoption of A New Mobility in NY

 

Many of the uncertainties surrounding Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) circle around dates. “When will AVs move from pilot tests to the open road,” and  “when will they outnumber conventional vehicles?” There is a lot riding on “when”. How can cities that plan transportation projects on a twenty or thirty years cycle evaluate future transit projects like rail when  the “when” is unclear?

Often radically new inventions, like the AV, have to lay-in- wait until components of the technology catch up. The Picturephone, for example, was demonstrated at the 1939 World’s Fair and AT&T showed a prototype in the 1960s. But, picture vision, like Skype, did not become mainstream until advancements were achieved in over-the-air bandwidth and video compression.

Similarly, remote-controlled AVs debuted in the 1920’s, but it took technological advancements in the 1980s to make them scalable. The functional vehicle required fast computing, computer vision, video cameras, and thereafter, neural processing networks and advanced sensors. We are now at the point where companies, specifically  Google,  have logged 5 million miles on the road and 5 billiion more on simulators.

A Problem to be Solved:

But, to get to the next stage, and solve “when” the technology must either create a problem to be solved, or solve an existing problem. There are useful parallels for problem solving from the time, over a hundred years ago, when the transition was made from horse and carriage to the human driven vehicle (HDV). Many people are surprised at how quickly HDVs displaced horses, particularly in urban areas. But, that’s because, as we will see, the technology was a problem solver.

First, some perspective. At the turn of the century, there were 21 million horses in the U.S.  and only about 4,000 automobiles. But, by 1908, in just eight years, the number of cars surpassed the number of horses in New York City. In more rural areas the diffusion was slower, but by 1922 horses were all but phased out, except in special applications. One of the key factors here was not a lack of interest, but often the absence of infrastructure, namely paved roads.

Infrastructure:

The human driven vehicle (HDV) required an infrastructure quite distinct from the horse and carriage.  Cars operated on paved roads, with painted lanes, signalization, and traffic rules. It is not widely known that a smaller technology, the bicycle, came first and helped transition roadways from rutted road or cobblestone to smooth, bituminous surfaces.

It is likely that we already have that smaller technology in place for the AV. Smartphones enable communication between drivers, vehicle sensors, and maps. The phone also has a different purpose: it is widely used in cars for ‘infortainment’, such that drivers may welcome the transition to AVS so that they can continue to text and talk more safely.

Efficiency:

During the transition from horses to cars, the wealthy acquired the first horseless carriages.  It was a status symbol. However, the real adoption took place, function-to-function. Freight-haulage was one of the later functions, probably because early cars did not have the horsepower, literally .

In the case of autonomous vehicles, freight shippers are on the leading edge because of opportunities to save time and reduce a reliance on drivers.  Autonomous cars may also appeal to suburban commuters, not because they are wealthy, but because they might help solve the problems of spending an average of 52 minutes a day stuck in traffic.

Resources:

The transition from horses to car vastly disrupted the supply chain for farmers and agriculture. A single horse required five acres of hay and grain annually, so vast tracts of farmland were reserved for growing, then transporting, horse feed.

The autonomous car, in this case an electric one, will likewise upend the supply chain. It will greatly reduce carbon emissions if solar energy or wind power are sources for generating the electricity. The electric AV will also significantly reduce emissions wrought by the extended  supply chain to drill, transport, refine, and store oil.

Public Health (1):

Public health is often cited as the core issue explaining why horse-driven transportation met a fast demise, and why cities were quick to adopt  human driven vehicles.

The millions of horses that pulled carriages and moved good and services left behind gigantic volumes of urine and waste.  Each day, the average horse produced 45 pounds of dung and a gallon of urine. Horses often died in service on the streets and their carcasses blocked traffic until they could be carted away.

The resulting public health issues ranged from noxious smells, horse dung passed on the shoes of pedestrians, flies, vermin, and airborne diseases.

Compared to horses, gas powered cars have fewer negative externalities, even with their massive C02 footprint. Electric cars will significantly reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality. They will also reduce approximately $190 billion each year in health care costs associated with accidents.

The AV also brings two other distinct advantages under the rubric of public health. First, these cars are quiet and will reduce  decibel levels in public spaces; noise reductions may bring  health benefits. Another improvement, particularly for mental health, may emerge when a transportation mode decreases stress, anxiety, and road-rage.

Public Health (2) :

The incentive in 1900 to move from horses to human driven vehicles had a safety aspect. Although they seem quaint and relatively slow, horse-drawn wagons were not stable and accident prone. Horse and pedestrian fatalities were also common. About the same number of people were killed in New York City in 1900 in horse-pedestrian collisions, as were killed in 2015 by car-pedestrian interactions. Considering the momentous change in population, horses were a clear danger to those on foot.

Although the recent death of a pedestrian in Arizona by an autonomous vehicle  is still topical, people overlook that on that same day (March 19, 2018), 120 people died in automobile related incidents. The push to safety, expressed in campaigns like Vision 2020  is likely to propel the technology. Today, 94% of today’s accidents are attributed to human error. In 2016 there were more than 37,000 fatalities plus  6,827 pedestrian and bicycles deaths. Worldwide, 1.2 million people lose their lives in automobile accidents.  This may be the largest man-made public health crisis we have ever faced.

Conspicuous Consumption Sea-Change?

To the inquiry  of ‘when’ the autonomous vehicle will go mainstream and the problems it will solve, we add a  final footnote.

Wealthy people were  the first to adopt the human operated vehicle, and car ownership was initially known as “the rich man’s toy.”  Cars have continued to be a status symbol, fueled by advertising, at least until now.

Over the next decade there could be a sea-change. Since they began just six or seven years ago, rideshare services like Uber and Lyft have reduced the need, and sometimes the desire, to own personal vehicles. Few rideshare passengers care about the type of vehicle that picks them up; it is the convenience and ease of use that matters. Scooters, a more recent entry, are also shifting perceptions. It is important to watch these trends, because urban mobility could operate in the future more as a service, like electricity or water.

If that is the case, AVs could roll out quickly.  They are to future cities what human driven vehicles (HDV)  are to horses.