As Baby Boomers reflect on the future of aging and driving, they will need to confront whether to age-in-place or sell the manse. Whether their house will be selling profitably and leave them equity, the so-called A.T.M. effect, will depend upon where it is located. In large urban areas, house prices have increased with growing demand. But, what is the outlook for far-flung suburbs where Baby Boomers once made the “drive to qualify?”

In earlier blogs, we noted that Millennials leaving San Francisco proper, are still settling in relatively close-in burbs. Burlingame, for example, is a preferred destination for families leaving San Francisco, because it has a BART connection and Caltrain. So, while gaining a single-family house and the white picket fence, new owners still have accessibility with public transportation.

A similar scenario is taking place far-away, on the Atlantic coast. A recent story in the Boston Globe called, “Millennial Movement,” notes that “as high costs push them farther out in the Boston suburbs, more young people are finding the lifestyle they prefer.” The reporter, Katheleen Conti, observes that young Bostonians are choosing to live beyond the dense areas of Cambridge, Somerville, and, Boston. The kicker, however, is their preference for inner suburbs.

According to data, these young Millennials are choosing to live in Massachusetts’s suburbs like Waltham, Brookline, Watertown, Framingham, and Shirley. In some of these areas, notably Waltham and Brookline, there are large universities nearby. But, what all of the locations have in common, including Shirley, is public transportation to Boston. (Shirley, an hour from Boston, has a total population of only 7,400).

In a closely related article, a chamber of commerce president from the near-in suburbs of Newton and Needham is quoted as saying that Millennials like a “bump factor.” That means they like the idea of running into friends and colleagues. So, housing with more communal-type spaces and buildings with big lobbies and Wi-Fi, is preferred.

Meanwhile, the president of a different Chamber of Commerce, in farther-out Burlington, is quoted too. He is trying to figure out how to arrange (shuttle) transportation so his region can attract workforce techies from Boston and Cambridge.

Baby Boomers who have homes in the inner suburbs have little to worry about. Unless tastes change, they should be able to use their home, when they retire, as the proverbial A.T.M. In other words, when they come to house selling- they should be fine-providing providing they can find a less expensive place to move to. Not all Millennials will choose to live in the city, and there is a growing trend to in-fill the inner suburbs. Perhaps some Millennials will discover towns beyond Shirley and public transportation. But, for Baby Boomers who have settled further out, the future is not clear. Until public transportation reaches their far-flung suburbs, “drive-to-qualify” homes may be going down.

Beyond our stereotypes of Oktoberfest and Autobahns, Germany seems to have created a better environment for aging-in-place. They have developed alternatives for aging and driving that could be imported, along with their fine cars and good beer. Despite their love of cars, they have developed a transportation network that is less car-dependent and age-friendlier. It is also safer and, importantly, healthier.

First, background: Germany has the third-largest proportion of elderly people worldwide, after Japan and Italy. The life expectancy is 85 years for women and 82 for men. GlobalAirWatch and HelpAge International recently ranked Germany fifth in a study on the quality-of-aging. Their report has an interesting observation:

“With 90 percent of people over 50 saying that they had friends or relatives they could count on in an emergency, the country (Germany) was well above average, and people largely felt safe, free to make their own choices and satisfied with the public transport system in their area.”

Next, we turn to information about the transportation system in Germany. This comes from extensive research done by Ralph Bueler at Virginia Tech, and then tweeted by CityLab.

As we cite it, keep in mind that manufacturing vehicles is a pivotal industry for both Germany and the U.S. Car ownership rates in Germany are high, but do not top the rates in the U.S. However, it is the difference in trip taking (i.e., when and how the Germans use their cars) that is astonishing: Germans take 9 percent of their trips on public transit, 24 percent by walking, and 10 percent by cycling. The comparable numbers for the U.S. are 2% transit, 11% walking and 1% cycling.

The differences do not stop there. Despite the higher number of walking and bicycle trips, the fatality rate in German is only 1.6 people per 100 million kilometer (km) cyclist miles, and 1.9 per 100 million km pedestrian miles walked. The comparable rates for the U.S. are 5.5 fatalities (bicycles) and 9.7 (walking).

These comparisons are for all age groups- not just the elderly. In a separate paper, Bueler and co-authors* report that the percentage of Germans age 65 and older who walk at least 30 minutes a day was five times higher than the share of elderly Americans (28.6% vs. 5.9%). Likewise, the percentage reporting 30 minutes of cycling per day was 13 times greater for the elderly in German than in the U.S. (6.5% vs. 0.5%).

But, add to this an additional and astonishing statistic. It is estimated that 12 percent of the German population is obese, compared to nearly one-quarter of those in the U.S.

The obesity rates are based on self-reported data, but if true, there is a trail to follow. This trail is about having a transportation system that enables people (of all ages) to be less car-dependent, keep more fit, and somehow, be less vulnerable to pedestrian and bicycle accidents too. It is also about living in places where there is less need to drive and stocking up on milk and bread does not entail a trip in the car.

As a society we have not accumulated full knowledge about the linkages between aging well and transportation choices. But, we can speculate. We do know that there are important connections between ‘health and obesity’ and between ‘health and safety’. Baby Boomers in the U.S., can look to Germany for ideas on aging, well-being and transportation.

*R. Buehler, J. Pucher, D. Merom and A. Bauman, “Active Travel in Germany and the U.S.,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Vol. 40, no. 9, Sept. 2011.